John Simpson, umwe mu banyamakuru bakomeye ku Isi mu gukurikirana intambara n’amakimbirane mpuzamahanga, avuga ko umwaka wa 2025 ari wo wabaye mubi kurusha indi yose mu myaka hafi 60 amaze akora uyu mwuga.

Avuga ko nubwo yabonye intambara nyinshi zikomeye zirimo iz’igihe cy’Intambara y’Ubutita (Cold War), izo muri Vietnam, Golfe, Kosovo n’ahandi, nta na rimwe yari yarigeze abona isi ihagaze ku nkombe y’akaga nk’uko bimeze ubu.

Simpson avuga ko impungenge ze zitaterwa gusa n’uko hari intambara nyinshi zirimo kuba icyarimwe, ahubwo biterwa n’uko imwe muri zo ifite ubushobozi bwo guhindura isi yose, igasubiza inyuma umutekano mpuzamahanga umaze imyaka myinshi wubakwa.

Ukraine: Intambara ishobora kuvamo intambara y’Isi

Perezida wa Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, aherutse kuburira amahanga ko intambara igihugu cye kirimo ishobora kuvamo intambara y’Isi yose. Simpson avuga ko, nyuma y’imyaka myinshi yitegereza uko intambara zitangira n’uko zikura, yumva ko ayo magambo ashobora kuba ari ukuri.

Ibihugu bigize OTAN (NATO) biri mu bwoba bukomeye kubera ibikorwa by’u Burusiya, birimo gushinjwa kugerageza guca insinga zo mu nyanja zitwara amakuru y’ikoranabuhanga akomeye akoreshwa mu mibereho y’ibihugu by’i Burayi n’Amerika.

Hari kandi impungenge ziterwa n’ibitero by’ikoranabuhanga (cyber attacks) bivugwa ko bigamije guhagarika minisiteri, serivisi z’ubutabazi n’ibigo binini by’ubucuruzi. Uburayi buvuga ko bwamaze kubona ibimenyetso by’uko bushobora guterwa n’u Burusiya bitarenze imyaka itanu iri imbere, bikaba bituma bahora bikanga Putin.

Simpson yibutsa ko u Burusiya bushinjwa n’ibihugu byo mu Burengerazuba kugirira nabi no kwica abatavuga rumwe n’ubutegetsi bahungiye mu mahanga. Iperereza ku iyicwa ryageragejwe gukorerwa Sergei Skripal mu 2018 ryagaragaje ko ryemejwe ku rwego rwo hejuru rw’ubuyobozi bw’u Burusiya, bivuze ko Perezida Vladimir Putin ubwe yabigizemo uruhare, nubwo igihugu cye cyabihakanye.

Intambara eshatu zaciye isi intege mu 2025

Umwaka wa 2025 waranzwe n’intambara eshatu zikomeye cyane ariko zitandukanye mu miterere:

Muri Ukraine: Umuryango w’Abibumbye uvuga ko abasivili barenga 14,000 bamaze kugwa muri iyo ntambara.

Muri Gaza: Nyuma y’igitero Hamas yagabye kuri Israel mu Ukwakira 2023 kigahitana abantu barenga 1,200, Israel yatangije ibitero bikomeye byahitanye Abanya-Palestine barenga 70,000, barimo abagore n’abana barenga 30,000 nk’uko byatangajwe na minisiteri y’ubuzima ya Gaza, imibare UN ivuga ko yizewe.

Muri Sudani: Intambara y’imbere mu gihugu hagati y’imitwe ya gisirikare yahitanye abantu barenga 150,000, inateza impunzi zisaga miliyoni 12.

Simpson avuga ko iyo imwe muri izi ntambara iba ari yo yonyine, amahanga aba yarakoze ibishoboka byose ngo ayihagarike, ariko kuba zarabereye icyarimwe byatumye isi icika intege.

Amerika igenda yigira kure y’u Burayi

Umunyamakuru John Simpson agaragaza ko kimwe mu bintu biteye impungenge kurusha ibindi ari ihinduka ry’imitekerereze ya Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika. Avuga ko mu mwaka wa 2025, isi yabonye ikintu kitari cyarigeze cyibazwa: Amerika ishobora kwitandukanya n’inshingano zo kurinda u Burayi.

Raporo nshya y’umutekano w’igihugu ya Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika ivuga ko u Burayi bushobora guhangana n’“ihungabana ry’umuco n’ubusugire bwabwo.” Ibi byishimiwe cyane n’u Burusiya, kuko bihuye n’intego zabwo zo guca intege umubano w’ibihugu byo mu Burengerazuba.

Putin n’intego zo kongera kwigarurira icyubahiro

Simpson avuga ko nubwo Perezida Putin avuga ko adateganya gutera u Burayi, ibikorwa bye byerekana ko yiteguye igihe cyose. U Burusiya bwateye igihugu cyigenga cyo ku mugabane w’u Burayi, busiga abasivili n’abasirikare ibihumbi n’ibihumbi bishwe, ndetse busabwa ibisobanuro ku gushimuta abana ba Ukraine barenga 20,000.

Urukiko Mpuzamahanga Mpanabyaha (ICC) rwasohoye impapuro zo guta muri yombi Perezida Putin kubera uruhare ashinjwa muri ibyo bikorwa, nubwo u Burusiya bukomeje kubihakana.

U Bushinwa na Taiwan I: Indi mpamvu iteye inkeke

Ku bijyanye n’Ubushinwa, Simpson avuga ko nubwo Perezida Xi Jinping atagaragara avuga amagambo menshi y’intambara kuri Tayiwani, hari impungenge ko mu 2026 ashobora gufata icyemezo gikomeye. Avuga ko ubuyobozi bw’Ubushinwa butajya bwirengagiza uko abaturage babwo batekereza, cyane cyane nyuma y’amateka y’imyigaragambyo yo mu 1989 yabereye i Tiananmen.

2026: Umwaka ushobora guhindura isi

Simpson asoza avuga ko umwaka wa 2026 ushobora kuba ingenzi cyane mu mateka y’Isi. Intambara ya Ukraine ishobora kurangira, ariko ku nyungu z’u Burusiya, bigaha Putin amahirwe yo kongera gufata ibindi bice mu gihe kiri imbere. Amerika ishobora kurushaho kwigira mu bibazo byayo bwite, igasiga u Burayi mu bwigunge.

Uyu munyamakuru w’inararibonye yongeraho ko intambara ya gatatu y’Isi ishobora kutazaba intambara y’amasasu n’ibisasu bya kirimbuzi gusa, ahubwo izaba intambara ya dipolomasi, igitutu cya gisirikare, ikoranabuhanga n’ubutegetsi bw’igitugu. Kandi nk’uko abivuga, “iyo nzira yamaze gutangira” nk’uko bikubiye mu nkuru ducyesha BBC.