Amerika na Iran bikomeje kugabanaho ibitero bikomeye, nyuma y’iminsi itanu ikurikirana Amerika igaba ibitero, Iran na yo ikihimura yibasira ibihugu byo mu Kigobe cy’Abarabu (Gulf) na Jordan.

Ibihugu byombi byatangaje ko amasezerano y’ubwumvikane (MoU) byari byasinyanye muri Kamena agamije kongera kubahiriza agahenge no gukomeza ibiganiro atakiriho. Nubwo bimeze bityo, impande zombi zagaragaje ko zigifunguye amarembo y’ibiganiro bya dipolomasi.

Hagati aho, Pakistan, yabaye umuhuza mukuru hagati ya Amerika na Iran, yasabye impande zombi guhagarika uruhererekane rw’ibitero no gusubukura ibiganiro.

Umuvugizi wa Minisiteri y’Ububanyi n’Amahanga ya Pakistan, Tahir Andrabi, yavuze ko igihugu cye "cyemera kidashidikanya ko nta yindi nzira yo kugera ku mahoro arambye, umutekano n’iterambere usibye ibiganiro bihoraho na dipolomasi."

Nubwo hari aya magambo, abayobozi b’impande zombi bagaragaje ko nta gahunda bafite yo guhita bagabanya ubukana bw’iyi ntambara.

Perezida wa Amerika Donald Trump yakomeje kuvuga ko Iran "ishaka cyane kugirana amasezerano y’amahoro na Washington", ariko akavuga ko adafitiye icyizere Tehran ko yakubahiriza ibyo yasezeranya.

Ku ruhande rwa Iran, abayobozi bakomeje kugaragaza ubushake bwo gukomeza kurwana. Uwayoboye imishyikirano ku ruhande rwa Iran, Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf, yavuze ko igihugu cye "kirwana intambara yo kubaho cyangwa kubura hagati yacyo na Amerika", bityo kikaba kitakibona impamvu yo gukomeza kubahiriza amasezerano y’amahoro.

Ese impande zombi zifite ubushobozi bwo gukomeza iyi ntambara?

Nubwo buri ruhande rukomeje kwerekana imbaraga, ibibazo by’ubukungu, igisirikare na politiki bishobora gutuma bitabasha gukomeza intambara igihe kirekire.

Iran ihanganye n’ubukungu bwazahajwe n’ibihano

Ubukungu bwa Iran bumaze imyaka myinshi bwarazahajwe n’ibihano bya Amerika, ndetse n’intambara iheruka yabwo na Amerika na Israel yaraburushijeho kubukomeretsa.

Ibihano by’ubukungu

Iran iri mu bihugu bifatiwe ibihano byinshi kurusha ibindi ku isi.

Ibihano bya Amerika byagabanyije cyane ubucuruzi bw’amavuta yayo, biyibuza kubona serivisi z’imari mpuzamahanga ndetse binahagarika umutungo wayo uri mu mahanga.

Kubera ibyo bihano, umusaruro mbumbe ku muturage (GDP per capita) wamanutse uva ku madolari 8,000 mu 2012 ugera ku 5,000 mu 2024.

Mu gihe kimwe, amavuta Iran yoherezaga hanze yagabanutse ava kuri barili miliyoni 2.2 ku munsi mu 2012 agera kuri miliyoni 1.5 mu 2025.

Nyuma yo gusinya amasezerano muri Kamena, Amerika yari yahagaritse by’agateganyo ibihano bimwe na bimwe ndetse yemera kurekura imitungo ya Iran yari yarafatiriwe.

Icyo gihe ifaranga rya Iran (Rial) ryahise rizamuka ku kigero cya 15%.

Ariko muri iki cyumweru, Amerika yongeye gushyiraho ibihano, ibintu byongeye gukomeretsa ubukungu bwa Iran.

Ubushobozi bwa gisirikare

Nubwo Iran ikomeje kugaba ibitero ku birindiro bya Amerika biri mu bihugu byo mu Kigobe cy’Abarabu, ubushakashatsi bw’Ikigo Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) bugaragaza ko ibikorwa remezo bya gisirikare byayo byangiritse cyane mu ntangiriro z’iyi ntambara.

Kugeza tariki ya 1 Mata, Iran yari imaze gukoresha hafi 30% by’ibigega byayo bya misile na 60% by’indege zitagira abapilote (drones).

Ibyambu bya gisirikare, amato y’intambara n’inganda zikora intwaro na byo byaribasiwe bikomeye.

Amerika kandi ivuga ko yangije cyane ibikorwa bya kirimbuzi bya Iran mu ntambara yamaze iminsi 12 yabaye mu 2025.

Ibitero bishya Amerika yatangiye mu cyumweru gishize bikomeje kwibasira ibirindiro bya gisirikare bya Iran, birimo n’ikirwa cya Greater Tunb gifite akamaro gakomeye mu bya gisirikare.

Umubano mubi n’ibihugu byo mu karere

Ibitero Iran ikomeje kugaba ku bihugu byo mu Kigobe cy’Abarabu byarushijeho kuzambya umubano wayo na byo.

Amerika ifite ibirindiro bya gisirikare nibura ahantu 19 mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati, harimo muri Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia na Leta Zunze Ubumwe z’Abarabu.

Iran ivuga ko yibasira gusa ibirindiro bya Amerika, ariko ibitero bimwe byayo byagize ingaruka ku baturage basanzwe.

Kubera iyo mpamvu, ibihugu byo mu Kigobe cy’Abarabu byatangiye kongera ubufatanye mu bya gisirikare, bisangira amakuru y’ubutasi ndetse binanoza uburyo bwo kuburirana hakiri kare.

Amerika na yo iri guhangana n’ibibazo bikomeye

Nubwo Amerika ifite igisirikare gikomeye, na yo ihanganye n’ibibazo bishobora kuyigora gukomeza iyi ntambara.

Izamuka ry’ibiciro bya peteroli

Nyuma y’ibitero biheruka kugabwa kuri Iran, ibiciro bya peteroli ku isoko mpuzamahanga byazamutseho 12%.

Gufunga Iran Umuyoboro wa Hormuz, unyuramo hafi 20% by’amavuta acuruzwa ku isi, byateje ihungabana ku masoko y’ingufu.

Muri Amerika, igiciro cya lisansi cyazamutse kiva ku madolari 2.98 ku galoni mbere y’intambara kigera kuri 4.63 muri Gicurasi.

Amatora yegereje

Izamuka ry’ibiciro ryatumye intambara Amerika irwana na Iran itakaza abayishyigikiye.

Ubushakashatsi bwa YouGov bwerekanye ko 57% by’Abanyamerika batekereza ko ubuyobozi bwa Trump bwafashe icyemezo kitari cyo cyo kujya muri iyi ntambara.

Ibi bishobora kugira ingaruka zikomeye ku Ishyaka ry’Abarepubulikani mu matora yo hagati muri manda ateganyijwe mu Ugushyingo, aho rishobora gutakaza ubwiganze rifite muri Kongere.

Kugabanuka kw’ibigega by’intwaro

Abasesenguzi bavuga ko ibigega by’intwaro za Amerika na byo bikomeje kugabanuka.

Amerika yakoresheje cyane intwaro zirindwi mu zikomeye kandi zihenze kurusha izindi mu kugaba ibitero kuri Iran.

Nibura enye muri zo zatakaje hafi kimwe cya kabiri cy’ibigega byazo mu cyiciro cya mbere cy’intambara.

Abahanga bavuga ko kongera kuzikora bishobora gufata amezi menshi cyangwa imyaka.

Byongeye kandi, Amerika imaze gutakaza abasirikare 14, mu gihe abandi 414 bamaze gukomerekera muri iyi ntambara kugeza ku wa 14 Nyakanga.

Ese hari icyizere ko intambara yagabanuka?

Umwarimu Alam Saleh wo muri Australian National University yavuze ko nubwo Iran ihura n’ibibazo by’ubukungu n’ibya dipolomasi, ubuyobozi bwayo bubona ko buri mu ntambara yo kurengera kubaho kw’igihugu, bityo bukaba butazemera koroshya imyitwarire.

Yagize ati: "Iran imaze hafi imyaka 47 ibayeho mu bihano mpuzamahanga kandi yagiye ishaka uburyo bwo kubyihanganira."

Yanavuze ko Iran idashaka kugaragara nk’igihugu cyacitse intege imbere ya Amerika, bityo ikaba idashobora kwemera amasezerano atatanga icyizere cy’umutekano wayo.

Ku ruhande rwa Amerika, impungenge nyinshi z’abasesenguzi si intambara na Iran gusa, ahubwo ni uko gukoresha intwaro nyinshi bishobora kuyisiga idafite ubushobozi buhagije mu gihe habaho indi ntambara n’ibihugu bikomeye nka China.

Impuguke mu by’umutekano Brian Finucane yavuze ko misile zikomeye nka Patriot na Tomahawk ziri gukoreshwa ku rugero rwo hejuru cyane, kandi zishobora gukenerwa mu yindi mirwano ishobora kuzabaho.

Mu gusoza, abasesenguzi bavuga ko nubwo impande zombi zifite impamvu zituma gukomeza intambara bibahenda, Amerika ishobora kuba ari yo iri kwangirika cyane ku rwego rw’ishusho yayo mpuzamahanga.

Alam Saleh yavuze ko China n’u Burusiya biri kureba uko Amerika yananiwe gutsinda Iran nubwo yakoresheje ubushobozi bwayo bwose.